GTA REALTORS® Release February 2024 Stats

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales and new listings were up on an annual and monthly basis in February 2024. Selling prices also edged upward compared to a year earlier. Population growth and a resilient regional economy continued to support the overall demand for housing. Higher borrowing costs kept home sales below the February sales record reached in 2021.

“We have recently seen a resurgence in sales activity compared to last year. The market assumption is that the Bank of Canada has finished hiking rates. Consumers are now anticipating rate cuts in the near future. A growing number of homebuyers have also come to terms with elevated mortgage rates over the past two years. To minimize higher monthly payments, some buyers have likely saved up a larger down payment, chosen to purchase a less-expensive home type and/or looked to a different location in the GTA,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

REALTORS® reported 5,607 GTA home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2024 – an increase of 17.9 per cent compared to February 2023. Even after accounting for the leap year effect, sales were up by 12.3 per cent yearover-year. New listings were up by an even greater annual rate than sales in February, pointing to increased choice for buyers. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, February sales were lower following two consecutive monthly increases while new listings were flat. Monthly figures can be somewhat volatile, especially when the market is approaching a transition point.

Home selling prices in February 2024 remained similar to February 2023. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark edged up by 0.4 per cent. The average selling price of $1,108,720 increased by a modest 1.1 per cent. On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price edged upward.

“As we move through 2024, an increasing number of buyers will re-enter the market with adjusted housing preferences to account for higher borrowing costs. In the second half of the year, lower interest rates will further boost demand for ownership housing. First-time buying activity will also be a contributing factor, as many renters look to trade high monthly rents for a long-term investment in which they can live and build equity,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“Population growth has been at a record pace and with the anticipated lower borrowing costs, the demand for housing – both ownership and rental – will also increase over the next two years. Unaffordable housing not only has a financial impact but also a social impact. Recent research conducted for TRREB by CANCEA in our 2024 Market Outlook and Year in Review report underscores the negative impact of unaffordable housing on peoples’ mental health and life satisfaction. It’s comforting to see that there has been some real building happening in the GTA and that the provincial government is rewarding those municipalities that are working to eliminate the red tape and meet those homeownership needs,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

TRREB: Tighter Market Conditions in January 2024 When Compared to the Previous Year 

TORONTO, ONTARIO, February 6, 2024 – Home sales were up in January 2024 in comparison to January 2023. This annual increase came as some homebuyers started to benefit from lower borrowing costs associated with fixed rate mortgage products. New listings were also up year-over-year but by a lesser annual rate compared to sales. The resulting tighter market conditions when compared to the same period a year earlier, potentially points toward renewed price growth as we move into the spring market. 

“We had a positive start to 2024. The Bank of Canada expects the rate of inflation to recede as we move through the year. This would support lower interest rates which would bolster home buyers' confidence to move back into the market. First-time buyers currently facing high average rents would benefit from lower mortgage rates, making the move to homeownership more affordable,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce. 

There were 4,223 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2024 – an increase of more than one-third compared to January 2023. The number of new listings was also up year-over-year but by a lesser annual rate of approximately six per cent. Stronger sales growth relative to listings suggests buyers experienced tighter market conditions compared to a year ago.

 On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings were up. Sales increased more than listings which means market conditions tightened relative to December 2023. 

“Once the Bank of Canada actually starts cutting its policy rate, likely in the second half of 2024, expect home sales to pick up even further. There will be more competition between buyers in 2024 as demand picks up and the supply of listings remains constrained. The end result will be upward pressure on selling prices over the next two years,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. 

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite in January 2024 was down by less than one per cent year-over-year in January. The average selling price was down by one per cent year-over-year to $1,026,703.  On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price also trended lower. 

“While housing market conditions are expected to improve with lower borrowing costs, there are still a number of policy issues that need to be addressed. At the federal level, more reflection on the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institution (OSFI) mortgage stress test is required, especially to its application at different points in the interest rate cycle. The focus for the Province needs to remain on building 1.5 million new homes. At the municipal level, raising property taxes without consistent support from the federal and provincial governments won’t eliminate Toronto’s structural deficit. Helping first-time homebuyers get into the ownership market will ease movement across the entire spectrum and relieve pressure on the rental market,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. 

On Thursday, February 8, TRREB is releasing its 2024 Market Outlook and Year in Review report and digital digest. This sought-after resource provides industry insights and forecasts what’s in store for the GTA real estate market. Readers will discover new research on the social implications of unaffordability and what’s required to adequately prepare for a rising population.