TRREB: Tighter Market Conditions in January 2024 When Compared to the Previous Year 

TORONTO, ONTARIO, February 6, 2024 – Home sales were up in January 2024 in comparison to January 2023. This annual increase came as some homebuyers started to benefit from lower borrowing costs associated with fixed rate mortgage products. New listings were also up year-over-year but by a lesser annual rate compared to sales. The resulting tighter market conditions when compared to the same period a year earlier, potentially points toward renewed price growth as we move into the spring market. 

“We had a positive start to 2024. The Bank of Canada expects the rate of inflation to recede as we move through the year. This would support lower interest rates which would bolster home buyers' confidence to move back into the market. First-time buyers currently facing high average rents would benefit from lower mortgage rates, making the move to homeownership more affordable,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce. 

There were 4,223 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2024 – an increase of more than one-third compared to January 2023. The number of new listings was also up year-over-year but by a lesser annual rate of approximately six per cent. Stronger sales growth relative to listings suggests buyers experienced tighter market conditions compared to a year ago.

 On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings were up. Sales increased more than listings which means market conditions tightened relative to December 2023. 

“Once the Bank of Canada actually starts cutting its policy rate, likely in the second half of 2024, expect home sales to pick up even further. There will be more competition between buyers in 2024 as demand picks up and the supply of listings remains constrained. The end result will be upward pressure on selling prices over the next two years,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. 

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite in January 2024 was down by less than one per cent year-over-year in January. The average selling price was down by one per cent year-over-year to $1,026,703.  On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price also trended lower. 

“While housing market conditions are expected to improve with lower borrowing costs, there are still a number of policy issues that need to be addressed. At the federal level, more reflection on the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institution (OSFI) mortgage stress test is required, especially to its application at different points in the interest rate cycle. The focus for the Province needs to remain on building 1.5 million new homes. At the municipal level, raising property taxes without consistent support from the federal and provincial governments won’t eliminate Toronto’s structural deficit. Helping first-time homebuyers get into the ownership market will ease movement across the entire spectrum and relieve pressure on the rental market,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. 

On Thursday, February 8, TRREB is releasing its 2024 Market Outlook and Year in Review report and digital digest. This sought-after resource provides industry insights and forecasts what’s in store for the GTA real estate market. Readers will discover new research on the social implications of unaffordability and what’s required to adequately prepare for a rising population.

TRREB: GTA REAL ESTATE MARKET MORE BALANCED IN JULY

TORONTO, ONTARIO, August 3, 2023 – Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales, new listings and home prices were up in July 2023 in comparison to July 2022. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the market experienced more balance in July compared to June, with sales trending lower while new listings were up.

“Home sales continued to be above last year’s levels in July, which suggests that many households have adjusted to higher borrowing costs. With that being said, it does appear that the sales momentum that we experienced earlier in the spring has stalled somewhat since the Bank of Canada restarted its rate tightening cycle in June. Compounding the impact of higher rates has been the persistent lack of listings for people to purchase compared to previous years,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,250 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in July 2023, representing a 7.8 per cent increase compared to July 2022. Over the same period, new listings were also up, but by a greater annual rate of 11.5 per cent. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 1.3 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price was also up by 4.2 per cent to $1,118,374 over the same timeframe.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the number of sales trended lower for the second straight month, whereas new listings trended upward. The seasonally adjusted average selling price edged lower while the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark edged higher.

“Uncertainty surrounding the direction of borrowing costs, jobs and the overall economy has impacted home sales over the last two months. Over the long term, the demand for ownership housing will remain strong on the back of record population growth. However, many homebuyers will continue to be on the sidelines in the short term until the direction of monetary policy and the economy becomes clearer,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“We continue to suffer from a misalignment in public policy as it relates to housing. The federal government is targeting record levels of immigration for the foreseeable future, but we have seen very little tangible progress in creating more ownership and rental housing to accommodate this growth. Population growth is imperative for economic development; however, this growth will be unsustainable if people can’t find an affordable place to live. All three levels of government need to be on the same page to fix this problem," said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

TRREB: STRENGTHENING DEMAND AND LACK OF HOUSING SUPPLY PUSHES UP PRICES IN THE GTA

TORONTO, ONTARIO, June 2, 2023 – The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to improve from a sales perspective in May 2023. Unfortunately, the supply of homes for sale did not keep up with the demand for ownership housing. Sales as a share of new listings were up dramatically compared to a year ago. This is a clear signal that competition between buyers increased substantially compared to last year, resulting in the average selling price reaching almost $1.2 million last month.

“Despite the fact that we have seen positive policy direction over the last couple of years, governments have been failing on the housing supply front for some time. Recent polling from Ipsos found that City of Toronto residents gave Council a failing grade on housing affordability and pointed to lack of supply as the major issue. This issue is not unique to Toronto. It persists throughout the Greater Golden Horseshoe. If we don't quickly see housing supply catch up to population growth, the economic development of our region will be hampered as people and businesses look elsewhere to live and invest,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 9,012 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in May 2023 – a 24.7 per cent increase compared to May 2022. Conversely, new listings were down by 18.7 per cent over the same period. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 5.2 per cent compared to April 2023.

“The demand for ownership housing has picked up markedly in recent months. Many homebuyers have recalibrated their housing needs in the face of higher borrowing costs and are moving back into the market. In addition, strong rent growth and record population growth on the back of immigration has also supported increased home sales. The supply of listings hasn't kept up with sales, so we have seen upward pressure on selling prices during the spring,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark was down by 6.9 per cent year-over-year in May 2023, but up by 3.2 per cent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis compared to April 2023. The average selling price, at $1,196,101, represented a small 1.2 per cent decline relative to May 2022. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the average selling price was up by 3.5 per cent compared to April 2023.

“The high cost of housing, brought about by short supply and high borrowing costs, is part of the broader increases in the cost of living. Municipalities, including the City of Toronto, need to be mindful of this when considering their revenue generation options. TRREB believes households will have little patience for higher taxes, including unreasonable property tax hikes and increases to prohibitive upfront land transfer taxes,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

GTA REALTORS^® Release April 2023 Stats

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to tighten in April 2023. On a year-over-year basis, sales edged lower compared to April 2022, but new listings were down by more than one-third. Fewer listings relative to sales meant there was more competition between buyers, supporting an improvement in selling prices since the beginning of this year.

“In line with TRREB’s outlook and recent consumer polling results, we are seeing a gradual improvement in sales and average selling price. Many buyers have come to terms with higher borrowing costs and are taking advantage of lower selling prices compared to this time last year. The issue moving forward will not be the demand for ownership housing, but rather the ability to meet this demand with adequate supply. This is a policy issue that requires sustained effort from all levels of government,” said TRREB President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS^® reported 7,531 sales through TRREB’s MLS^® System in April 2023 – down by 5.2 per cent compared to April 2022. In comparison to March 2023, sales increased on an actual and seasonally adjusted basis. On a year-over-year basis, new listings were down by 38.3 per cent in April 2023.

The MLS^® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down by 12.1 per cent year-over-year in April 2023. Compared to March, the benchmark price was up on an actual and seasonally adjusted basis. The average selling price in the GTA was $1,153,269 in April 2023 – down 7.8 per cent compared to $1,250,704 in April 2022. The average selling price also increased compared to March, both on an actual and seasonally adjusted basis.

“As demand for ownership housing has picked up relative to supply, we are seeing renewed upward pressure on home prices. For a short period of time, higher borrowing costs trumped the impact of the constrained housing supply in the GTA. Renewed competition between buyers is once again shining the spotlight on the persistent lack of listings and resulting impact on affordability,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“Lack of affordability in the GTA ownership and rental housing markets has been well-documented. On top of this, households faced with steep price increases for basic goods and services have had to make tough decisions to adapt. It is time for governments to make tough choices as well. On average, every dollar a household makes in the first half of the year goes to taxes. Governments need to provide more value for every tax dollar they collect and should be looking for ways to reduce tax burdens moving forward,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

GTA REALTORS Release February Stats

TORONTO, ONTARIO, MARCH 3, 2023 – February sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) were down substantially from the pre-rate hike levels of early 2022. However, the number of new listings also dropped substantially year-over-year. The result was that the average selling price and MLS® HPI continued to level off after trending lower through the spring and summer of last year.

“It has been almost a year since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates. Home prices have dropped over the last year from the record peak in February 2022, mitigating the impact of higher borrowing costs. Many homebuyers have also decided to purchase a lower priced home to help offset higher borrowing costs. The share of home purchases below one million dollars is up substantially compared to this time last year,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 4,783 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2023 – down 47 per cent compared to February 2022, the last full month before the onset of interest rate hikes. The number of new listings entered into the system was down by a similar annual rate of 40.9 per cent to 8,367.

“New listings continued to drop year-over-year in the GTA. Recently released Ipsos polling suggests buying intentions have picked up for 2023. This increased demand will run up against a constrained supply of listings and lead to increased competition between buyers. This will eventually lead to renewed price growth in many segments of the market, especially those catering to first-time buyers facing increased rental costs,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. The average selling price for February 2023 was $1,095,617 – down 17.9 per cent compared to February 2022. Some of this decline is attributable to the fact that the share of sales below $1,000,000 was 57 per cent in February 2023 versus only 38 per cent a year earlier. On a monthly basis, the average price followed the regular seasonal trend, increasing relative to January 2023. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down year-over-year by a similar annual rate of 17.7 per cent, but was also up on a monthly basis.

“As we move toward a June mayoral by-election in Toronto, housing supply will once again be front and centre in the policy debate. New and innovative solutions, including the City of Toronto’s initiative to allow duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes in all neighbourhoods citywide, need to come to fruition if we are to achieve an adequate and diverse housing supply that will support record population growth in the years to come,” said TRREB Chief Executive Officer John DiMichele.

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